MIA 108-110 MEM, April 3, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. MEM beat MIA 110-108, but MIA's shots were worth 118.0 points to MEM's 112.2.

MIA 108-110 MEM, April 3, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
MIA	95	92	103.0	16/19	14.9	108	118.0
MEM	85	96	98.5	14/17	13.7	110	112.2

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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