DAL 120-118 ATL, April 2, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. DAL beat ATL 120-118, but ATL's shots were worth 123.8 points to DAL's 110.0.

DAL 120-118 ATL, April 2, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
DAL	83	103	94.3	17/21	15.7	120	110.0
ATL	97	99	106.6	19/22	17.2	118	123.8

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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