MIL 133-123 PHX, April 1, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. MIL beat PHX 133-123, but PHX's shots were worth 111.3 points to MIL's 97.3.

MIL 133-123 PHX, April 1, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
MIL	74	119	87.4	14/15	9.9	133	97.3
PHX	92	106	94.2	17/21	17.1	123	111.3

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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