DEN 129-93 UTA, March 28, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. DEN beat UTA 129-93, but UTA's shots were worth 121.0 points to DEN's 120.3.

DEN 129-93 UTA, March 28, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
DEN	83	107	98.9	22/28	21.4	129	120.3
UTA	93	73	102.6	20/24	18.4	93	121.0

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.