MIA 122-112 ATL, March 27, 2025

Did the better shots win?

Yes. MIA beat ATL 122-112, and MIA's shots were worth 105.8 points to ATL's 101.2.

MIA 122-112 ATL, March 27, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
MIA	82	106	89.9	16/20	16.0	122	105.8
ATL	83	104	92.7	8/11	8.5	112	101.2

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All NBA games, 2024-25

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.