ORL 92-101 DAL, March 27, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. DAL beat ORL 101-92, but ORL's shots were worth 100.7 points to DAL's 95.1.

ORL 92-101 DAL, March 27, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
ORL	80	73	82.4	19/24	18.3	92	100.7
DAL	78	85	78.1	16/22	17.0	101	95.1

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.