CLE 124-116 SAS, March 27, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. CLE beat SAS 124-116, but SAS's shots were worth 133.2 points to CLE's 125.5.

CLE 124-116 SAS, March 27, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
CLE	99	109	111.7	15/18	13.8	124	125.5
SAS	106	100	116.8	16/21	16.4	116	133.2

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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