DEN 127-117 MIL, March 26, 2025

Did the better shots win?

Yes. DEN beat MIL 127-117, and DEN's shots were worth 111.3 points to MIL's 95.6.

DEN 127-117 MIL, March 26, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
DEN	90	114	94.0	13/22	17.3	127	111.3
MIL	89	108	86.1	9/13	9.5	117	95.6

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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