HOU 121-114 ATL, March 25, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. HOU beat ATL 121-114, but ATL's shots were worth 126.8 points to HOU's 119.4.

HOU 121-114 ATL, March 25, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
HOU	93	95	97.3	26/29	22.1	121	119.4
ATL	103	101	115.4	13/15	11.4	114	126.8

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All NBA games, 2024-25

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.