PHX 108-106 MIL, March 24, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. PHX beat MIL 108-106, but MIL's shots were worth 109.2 points to PHX's 97.1.

PHX 108-106 MIL, March 24, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
PHX	82	92	82.2	16/18	14.9	108	97.1
MIL	83	86	88.7	20/29	20.5	106	109.2

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All NBA games, 2024-25

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.