DEN 119-129 CHI, March 24, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. CHI beat DEN 129-119, but DEN's shots were worth 123.3 points to CHI's 119.6.

DEN 119-129 CHI, March 24, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
DEN	97	103	106.2	16/24	17.1	119	123.3
CHI	91	107	98.1	22/26	21.5	129	119.6

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.