POR 116-129 BOS, March 23, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. BOS beat POR 129-116, but POR's shots were worth 106.6 points to BOS's 104.3.

POR 116-129 BOS, March 23, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
POR	88	105	94.3	11/16	12.3	116	106.6
BOS	88	119	93.2	10/14	11.1	129	104.3

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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