ATL 124-115 GSW, March 22, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. ATL beat GSW 124-115, but GSW's shots were worth 120.9 points to ATL's 110.7.

ATL 124-115 GSW, March 22, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
ATL	86	113	96.5	11/18	14.2	124	110.7
GSW	84	94	100.3	21/26	20.6	115	120.9

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.