LAL 120-108 DEN, March 19, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. LAL beat DEN 120-108, but DEN's shots were worth 113.0 points to LAL's 111.1.

LAL 120-108 DEN, March 19, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
LAL	83	100	89.4	20/28	21.7	120	111.1
DEN	87	95	97.1	13/21	15.9	108	113.0

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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