ORL 108-116 HOU, March 19, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. HOU beat ORL 116-108, but ORL's shots were worth 114.2 points to HOU's 112.0.

ORL 108-116 HOU, March 19, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
ORL	92	91	99.5	17/20	14.7	108	114.2
HOU	81	87	86.8	29/32	25.1	116	112.0

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.