GSW 105-114 DEN, March 17, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. DEN beat GSW 114-105, but GSW's shots were worth 113.7 points to DEN's 112.9.

GSW 105-114 DEN, March 17, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
GSW	84	90	92.8	15/27	20.9	105	113.7
DEN	92	100	99.3	14/18	13.6	114	112.9

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.