POR 105-102 TOR, March 16, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. POR beat TOR 105-102, but TOR's shots were worth 116.9 points to POR's 107.3.

POR 105-102 TOR, March 16, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
POR	88	90	93.1	15/18	14.2	105	107.3
TOR	94	86	101.8	16/20	15.1	102	116.9

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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