CLE 103-108 ORL, March 16, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. ORL beat CLE 108-103, but CLE's shots were worth 122.2 points to ORL's 113.4.

CLE 103-108 ORL, March 16, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
CLE	96	90	106.1	13/20	16.1	103	122.2
ORL	81	81	87.3	27/34	26.0	108	113.4

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.