MIL 126-119 IND, March 15, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. MIL beat IND 126-119, but IND's shots were worth 115.3 points to MIL's 108.3.

MIL 126-119 IND, March 15, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
MIL	79	101	88.3	25/26	20.0	126	108.3
IND	96	109	104.8	10/13	10.5	119	115.3

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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