DEN 131-126 LAL, March 14, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. DEN beat LAL 131-126, but LAL's shots were worth 138.7 points to DEN's 132.2.

DEN 131-126 LAL, March 14, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
DEN	85	101	102.0	30/38	30.2	131	132.2
LAL	105	113	126.0	13/16	12.7	126	138.7

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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