DEN 95-115 MIN, March 12, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. MIN beat DEN 115-95, but DEN's shots were worth 115.0 points to MIN's 113.8.

DEN 95-115 MIN, March 12, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
DEN	89	79	97.6	16/22	17.4	95	115.0
MIN	90	103	101.3	12/16	12.6	115	113.8

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.