HOU 111-104 PHX, March 12, 2025

Did the better shots win?

Yes. HOU beat PHX 111-104, and HOU's shots were worth 116.1 points to PHX's 95.3.

HOU 111-104 PHX, March 12, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
HOU	88	92	97.2	19/25	18.9	111	116.1
PHX	73	88	79.1	16/20	16.1	104	95.3

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All NBA games, 2024-25

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.