MIA 104-119 LAC, March 12, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. LAC beat MIA 119-104, but MIA's shots were worth 105.3 points to LAC's 103.6.

MIA 104-119 LAC, March 12, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
MIA	84	94	94.4	10/14	10.8	104	105.3
LAC	76	103	84.1	16/24	19.6	119	103.6

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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