ORL 123-125 CHI, March 6, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. CHI beat ORL 125-123, but ORL's shots were worth 129.5 points to CHI's 116.7.

ORL 123-125 CHI, March 6, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
ORL	87	89	98.2	34/40	31.3	123	129.5
CHI	86	101	92.4	24/30	24.3	125	116.7

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.