OKC 127-140 DEN, March 10, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. DEN beat OKC 140-127, but OKC's shots were worth 116.4 points to DEN's 108.3.

OKC 127-140 DEN, March 10, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
OKC	100	113	103.6	14/16	12.8	127	116.4
DEN	86	122	91.8	18/20	16.4	140	108.3

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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