MIL 100-112 CLE, March 9, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. CLE beat MIL 112-100, but MIL's shots were worth 113.4 points to CLE's 110.9.

MIL 100-112 CLE, March 9, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
MIL	91	87	99.7	13/18	13.7	100	113.4
CLE	88	97	95.5	15/19	15.5	112	110.9

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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