ATL 120-118 IND, March 8, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. ATL beat IND 120-118, but IND's shots were worth 130.8 points to ATL's 123.0.

ATL 120-118 IND, March 8, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
ATL	97	100	105.8	20/21	17.2	120	123.0
IND	94	92	107.1	26/30	23.7	118	130.8

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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