DEN 149-141 PHX, March 7, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. DEN beat PHX 149-141, but PHX's shots were worth 124.7 points to DEN's 123.9.

DEN 149-141 PHX, March 7, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
DEN	97	135	109.6	14/18	14.3	149	123.9
PHX	91	118	101.2	23/29	23.6	141	124.7

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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