NOP 97-109 HOU, March 6, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. HOU beat NOP 109-97, but NOP's shots were worth 115.7 points to HOU's 110.2.

NOP 97-109 HOU, March 6, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
NOP	83	71	91.5	26/33	24.2	97	115.7
HOU	81	101	96.9	8/18	13.3	109	110.2

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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