MIL 137-107 DAL, March 5, 2025

Did the better shots win?

Yes. MIL beat DAL 137-107, and MIL's shots were worth 104.6 points to DAL's 102.1.

MIL 137-107 DAL, March 5, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
MIL	89	120	90.0	17/19	14.6	137	104.6
DAL	98	103	94.4	4/10	7.6	107	102.1

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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