CHI 117-139 CLE, March 4, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. CLE beat CHI 139-117, but CHI's shots were worth 141.3 points to CLE's 135.0.

CHI 117-139 CLE, March 4, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
CHI	106	105	127.4	12/17	13.9	117	141.3
CLE	98	109	108.4	30/33	26.6	139	135.0

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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