IND 115-102 HOU, March 4, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. IND beat HOU 115-102, but HOU's shots were worth 123.6 points to IND's 102.6.

IND 115-102 HOU, March 4, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
IND	86	105	94.5	10/10	8.1	115	102.6
HOU	98	89	104.1	13/26	19.5	102	123.6

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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