MEM 130-132 ATL, March 3, 2025

Did the better shots win?

Neither side had the better shots. ATL beat MEM 132-130, and the shots on each side were worth 119.7.

MEM 130-132 ATL, March 3, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
MEM	93	107	99.2	23/25	20.5	130	119.7
ATL	96	123	107.9	9/17	11.8	132	119.7

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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