CLE 133-129 POR, March 2, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. CLE beat POR 133-129, but POR's shots were worth 135.6 points to CLE's 133.3.

CLE 133-129 POR, March 2, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
CLE	97	103	105.1	30/35	28.2	133	133.3
POR	96	98	108.2	31/35	27.4	129	135.6

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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