HOU 103-113 SAC, March 1, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. SAC beat HOU 113-103, but HOU's shots were worth 107.4 points to SAC's 104.6.

HOU 103-113 SAC, March 1, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
HOU	86	87	90.7	16/23	16.7	103	107.4
SAC	87	97	87.4	16/21	17.1	113	104.6

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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