MIL 121-112 DEN, February 27, 2025

Did the better shots win?

Neither side had the better shots. MIL beat DEN 121-112, and the shots on each side were worth 126.3.

MIL 121-112 DEN, February 27, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
MIL	90	98	105.4	23/28	20.9	121	126.3
DEN	105	103	117.5	9/11	8.7	112	126.3

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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