HOU 118-106 SAS, February 26, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. HOU beat SAS 118-106, but SAS's shots were worth 129.0 points to HOU's 126.5.

HOU 118-106 SAS, February 26, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
HOU	102	107	116.3	11/14	10.3	118	126.5
SAS	100	91	112.9	15/21	16.0	106	129.0

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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