MIA 131-109 ATL, February 26, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. MIA beat ATL 131-109, but ATL's shots were worth 106.1 points to MIA's 102.2.

MIA 131-109 ATL, February 26, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
MIA	76	113	84.8	18/22	17.5	131	102.2
ATL	81	94	91.3	15/19	14.8	109	106.1

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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