IND 116-125 DEN, February 24, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. DEN beat IND 125-116, but IND's shots were worth 116.0 points to DEN's 112.1.

IND 116-125 DEN, February 24, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
IND	85	94	94.5	22/27	21.5	116	116.0
DEN	94	114	101.9	11/14	10.2	125	112.1

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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