WAS 101-104 MIL, February 21, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. MIL beat WAS 104-101, but WAS's shots were worth 111.3 points to MIL's 103.1.

WAS 101-104 MIL, February 21, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
WAS	87	82	90.0	19/27	21.3	101	111.3
MIL	82	87	84.4	17/26	18.7	104	103.1

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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