ORL 104-105 MEM, February 21, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. MEM beat ORL 105-104, but ORL's shots were worth 120.0 points to MEM's 118.8.

ORL 104-105 MEM, February 21, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
ORL	88	81	94.3	23/33	25.8	104	120.0
MEM	92	83	95.9	22/29	22.9	105	118.8

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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