DEN 129-115 CHA, February 20, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. DEN beat CHA 129-115, but CHA's shots were worth 120.1 points to DEN's 119.9.

DEN 129-115 CHA, February 20, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
DEN	98	117	106.9	12/16	13.0	129	119.9
CHA	99	101	107.4	14/17	12.7	115	120.1

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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