ATL 108-114 ORL, February 20, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. ORL beat ATL 114-108, but ATL's shots were worth 133.2 points to ORL's 127.0.

ATL 108-114 ORL, February 20, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
ATL	100	89	111.9	19/28	21.3	108	133.2
ORL	85	88	97.2	26/38	29.7	114	127.0

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.