MIA 85-103 BOS, February 10, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. BOS beat MIA 103-85, but MIA's shots were worth 113.6 points to BOS's 102.1.

MIA 85-103 BOS, February 10, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
MIA	92	73	103.6	12/13	10.0	85	113.6
BOS	85	95	95.5	8/8	6.6	103	102.1

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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