CHI 133-124 MIA, February 4, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. CHI beat MIA 133-124, but MIA's shots were worth 111.6 points to CHI's 103.1.

CHI 133-124 MIA, February 4, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
CHI	91	115	85.5	18/22	17.6	133	103.1
MIA	90	103	90.6	21/26	21.0	124	111.6

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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