IND 132-127 ATL, February 1, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. IND beat ATL 132-127, but ATL's shots were worth 123.5 points to IND's 113.2.

IND 132-127 ATL, February 1, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
IND	90	110	92.9	22/25	20.2	132	113.2
ATL	90	104	98.7	23/32	24.8	127	123.5

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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