TOR 106-122 CHI, January 31, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. CHI beat TOR 122-106, but TOR's shots were worth 126.0 points to CHI's 117.4.

TOR 106-122 CHI, January 31, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team
TeamFGAFG pointsFG expectedFTFT expectedPointsShots' worth
TOR9288105.418/2720.6106126.0
CHI89108103.914/1713.5122117.4

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.