PHI 134-137 DEN, January 31, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. DEN beat PHI 137-134, but PHI's shots were worth 114.4 points to DEN's 112.4.

PHI 134-137 DEN, January 31, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
PHI	90	121	101.4	13/16	13.0	134	114.4
DEN	82	120	97.5	17/18	14.8	137	112.4

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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