MEM 120-119 HOU, January 30, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. MEM beat HOU 120-119, but HOU's shots were worth 127.1 points to MEM's 116.5.

MEM 120-119 HOU, January 30, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
MEM	93	105	100.9	15/20	15.6	120	116.5
HOU	97	97	106.7	22/28	20.4	119	127.1

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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