CLE 137-115 ATL, January 30, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. CLE beat ATL 137-115, but ATL's shots were worth 111.4 points to CLE's 106.4.

CLE 137-115 ATL, January 30, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
CLE	91	119	90.7	18/20	15.8	137	106.4
ATL	90	95	89.7	20/27	21.7	115	111.4

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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